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As summer begins to come to a close the Atlantic Hurricane Season reaches its peak. The ocean waters are at their warmest and most favorable conditions for hurricanes to form and strengthen. Just as summers past there is a new storm looming and its potential is immense for the United States.

Gustav is currently a Category 1 hurricane that is bearing down on Haiti at the moment. Already five people there have been killed and flood conditions exist. As the hurricane presses onward the big question is, where is Gustav headed and how strong will it become?

Forecasts are being made carefully because unfortunately Gustav has a very real possibility of significantly affecting the Gulf Coast of the United States. Meteorologist Jeff Masters reports that the computer forecast models are still in some disagreement about where Gustav may exactly end up, but it does appear certain that it will head into the Gulf. The models also appear to show the hurricane strengthening to major hurricane status, at least a category 3. Of course how strong the hurricane gets depends on the track it takes.

As it looks now Gustav will navigate between the Islands of Cuba and Jamaica, through a narrow strip of ocean. That will mean the center of the storm will remain over warm waters and be able to intensify. The longer it remains over warm waters, rather than land, the stronger a hurricane can become. Gustav also may pass over the tip of Cuba which is very mountainous terrain. The longer it stays over Cuba will also determine exactly how much the storm will weaken before it reenters the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Projected path of Gustav and Category Projection

Animated Satellite Imagery of Gustav

To intensify the complexity of the forecast there is also an “Eddy” or significantly warmer pocket of water in the middle of the Gulf, south of Louisiana. In 2005 there was a very similar Eddy that was in the center of the Gulf that both Hurricane Rita and Katrina passed over. That is what caused them to catapult to category 5 hurricanes rapidly, just before land fall. If Gustav passes over this Eddy it too may strengthen significantly more than currently forecasted.

Another possible impact on Gustav is more on Wall Street than Main Street. Just as during Rita and Katrina, when a hurricane is projected to impact the Gulf of Mexico the oil industry freezes up. There are many oil platforms in the Gulf that cannot operate during a hurricane that also risk the possibility of being damaged and out of operation if a strong hurricane approaches or passes close by. The forecast of a hurricane in the Gulf is enough the scare the markets and raise the price of oil in response to the possibility of a shortage. One of the last things American’s want to hear, especially as the final holiday weekend of the summer approaches, is that gas prices may be going higher yet again.

At this time it is just to far in the future to reliably determine exactly what Gustav may do beyond moving into the Gulf and intensifying to a significant degree. Just to what degree Gustav will strengthen and where it will wreak havoc will have to be determined in the days to come. Its just a little too early to go by plywood and toilet paper just yet.

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